Papers

Abstract: Among basketball fans (as well as most sports fans), the question of whether a great offense or great defense is more important for winning has been an age-old debate. This debate also begs the follow-up question of which of these offensive and defensive metrics are the most important for winning basketball games. The aim of this research project is to determine which metrics are the most important for winning games, and whether better offensive or defensive metrics are a greater overall indicator of winning games, as well as championships, in modern college basketball. The sample consisted of data from the 2013-2021 NCAA Division I men’s college basketball seasons. The metrics measured to predict winning percentage included 8 offensive and 7 defensive variables. A series of linear regression analyses were performed for each variable in relation to team winning percentage. The results confirmed that a strong offense is the most predictive indicator for team success. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed in relation to games won in order to assess which variables were the best subset for winning games. The results confirmed that the most viable subset consisted of mainly offensive variables. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed in relation to championship status in order to assess which variables were the best subset for winning championships. The results confirmed that the most viable subset consisted of mainly defensive variables. Thus, the old adage “Offense wins games, defense wins championships” actually holds true.